10 Responses

  1. Mike Podhorzer
    Mike Podhorzer at | | Reply

    Hey Tanner, good to see you’ve been keeping up with the podcast in the off-season! Anyway, I think there’s two reasons I, and many others I’m sure, make these types of comments about early mocks. First, Hanley hasn’t been a first rounder in years. Even though he has been in the past, every year when you first see a new name in the first round, it’s a surprise and “feels” wrong. It will take some time to get used to the idea that Hanley is now considered a first rounder, the same way Adam Jones is suddenly being taken in the first even though he posted nearly identical seasons in 2012 and 2013. So the knee jerk reaction is always “wow you’re weighting the last season too highly and suffering from recency bias.”

    The other explanation is that us observers, or at least me, don’t really look through the mock closely and put ourselves in the position of the drafter. The question that you need to ask someone critical of the pick is simply, “well then, who would you have taken instead?”. In looking at the other options, I have no clue! I don’t like any of them and wouldn’t feel comfortable that early. This is always something I deal with way before I even start my projections because nothing feels right just yet.

    One other note that is very important to the Tulo-Hanley comparison is that Tulo has completely stopped stealing bases. So Hanley is essentially Tulo, but with an extra 15-20 steals. By taking Tulo earlier, you’re betting that he has a better chance of staying healthy because given the same playing time, I’d have to imagine Hanley would earn more fantasy value.

  2. Rudy
    Rudy at | | Reply

    “Hanley Ramirez deserves to be drafted before Troy Tulowitzki.” I agree, two years ago I drafted him in the second round ahead of Cano. Everyone called me crazy and while I didnt win that year, keeping him helped me win this year. (its a 3 year keeper league)
    People are sour on him bc of the Marlins days but if he puts together a healthy 2014 in that LAD lineup he will have a huge year and will be a consensus first rounder for 2015.

  3. Clave
    Clave at | | Reply

    You chose well, or at least as good as you could’ve given the pick and situation.

    I’ll break out in hives if I’m picking anywhere 5-9 in 2014. There’s no definative pick there and I plan to write about it as I collect some more data. I did float this pick of Yasiel at #5:

    http://fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com/2013/11/14/2014-fantasy-baseball-first-round-draft/

    I really appreciate the comment Mike Podhorzer made as well. I think he hit the nail on the head with all the “feels.”

  4. Clave
    Clave at | | Reply

    PS – This reminded me that I never wrote a recap of any kind with that mock draft. Man, I phoned that sucker in.

  5. Carnac
    Carnac at | | Reply

    Using 8 years of games played data to determine injury-proneness for 2014 doesn’t seem prudent. Including more than ~3 most recent seasons skews the sample and makes it less predictive.

  6. Jeffrey Miller
    Jeffrey Miller at | | Reply

    I like them both as Mid to Late 1st Round Picks. I give the edge slightly to Hanley in a Free-Agent Contract year.

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