12 Responses

  1. Sean
    Sean at | | Reply

    Would you treat a H2H league as if it was a rotisserie, or is there an adjustment you’d make?

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at | | Reply

      Hi Sean. I think treating a H2H league as if it were a rotisserie league makes sense, but with a couple of caveats. First, it makes sense to have a balanced team early in the season (like in rotisserie), but as the season progresses and the playoffs near, I think it makes more sense to determine a specific strategy for the playoffs that may involve punting a category or two in exchange for strengthening others. Second, there is also an element of “consistency” that becomes important in H2H. I have not done much research into this concept, but others have. Here’s an example: http://www.baseballhq.com/content/head-head-consistency-series-part-i%E2%80%942014-draft-values

  2. Dave
    Dave at | | Reply

    First, the denominator I’m using from 1 year of play in my OBP league is .00255. So, pretty close.

    Also, how do you treat guys with multiple position eligibility when determining your replacement level player? For example, do you leave Buster Posey in your list of first basemen, even though he obviously has more value as a C?

    Seems to me you can only use a guy once, otherwise you will end up with less than the requisite # of players in your final pool.

  3. Dave
    Dave at | | Reply

    That’s for a 12-team league, btw.

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at | | Reply

      Hi Dave, thanks for validating the numbers I came up with. I assign multi-position eligible players to the weakest position they qualify for. For example, Posey is treated as a Catcher because of the weakness at that position in comparison to 1B. This gives Posey the most value and is very likely what he will be drafted for.

  4. direwolfdc
    direwolfdc at | | Reply

    Thank you very much for this post. Very helpful

  5. Iyh
    Iyh at | | Reply

    How feasible is it to do this for ops?

  6. Tanner Bell
    Tanner Bell at | | Reply

    LYH, I will try to get a post up for OPS in the next couple of days. The data I have is from an NL-only league, so the factors will probably not be indicative of a mixed league, but I can at least display how I would calculate everything.

  7. iyh
    iyh at | | Reply

    That would be very helpful. Thanks!

  8. Jason
    Jason at | | Reply

    I’m trying to break this down for my 10 team league. =(201 + 2,609)/(580 + 7,540) — maybe i missed it but what is the 2609 and 7540 in the formula?

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at | | Reply

      Hi Jason. I’ll take one step back first. First think of the “=(201+2,609)/(580+7,540)” instead as “2,810/8,120”.

      The 2,810 / 8,120 = 0.346 (the league average OBP) for the league shown above.

      In this 12-team league with 14 hitters on each team that means 168 players are drafted. I looked at the top 168 players and found that they averaged 580 plate appearances.

      The 8,120 = 580 plate appearances * 14 players.

      If I have 8,120 plate appearances and know that I had an overall OBP of 0.346, that means there had to be 2,810 “times on base” (8,120 * .346 = 2,810).

      So now we’re at 2,810 / 8,120. But that is for 14 “average” players. We need to remove one “average” player and then add back the stats from the player you’re evaluating.

      2,810 / 14 = 201 “times on base for the average player”
      8,120 / 14 = 580 “plate appearances for the average player”

      So removing one of those gets us (2,810 – 201)/(8,120 – 580).

      Or 2,609 / 7,540.

      Hope that helps.

  9. Jason
    Jason at | | Reply

    That was the step i was missing. Thank you for your quick response.

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