2 Responses

  1. evo34
    evo34 at | | Reply

    Interesting article. I do wish Lichtman had used a (modified) ERA estimator rather than ERA for pitchers. I don’t think there is any advanced fantasy owner out there who would look at actual ERA (or NERA) to project RoS ERA. He/she would use YTD xFIP or something of the sort and then adjust it for park and defense. I.e., the study doesn’t really show that YTD stats aren’t very predictive; it just shows that using single stat to predict itself during the same season is not a great idea. Anyway, it is a nice starting point.

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