5 Responses

  1. Kevin Senor
    Kevin Senor at | | Reply

    Great article…I know not to put much weight in BvP and streaks but I catch myself doing it all the time especially when I am stuck on two players and one spot left!

    Really looking forward to this DFS series by you.

  2. Jimmy Mendieta
    Jimmy Mendieta at | | Reply

    Great article. I am enjoying your information on DFS. I just recently started playing myself and after doing research, I have found your site to be the most helpful. Thanks for all the work you do.

  3. evo34
    evo34 at | | Reply

    Nice article. I have to disagree with the use of arbitrary cutoffs, though. It’s not like the predicitveness of a BvP history goes from 0% to 100% at the 100 PA mark. It’s going to be fairly linear. So if a veteran pitcher is facing a lineup — most of whom he has historically owned (vs. expected perf.) over 30-50 PA per batter — he almost definitely has a postive expectation over a neutral projection. I.e., a bunch of small, otherwise negligible edges matter when they happen to line up in one direction. It’s how I have succeeded in MLB betting for 10 years.

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at | | Reply

      Hi Evo,

      Yes, I’d have to agree. I word things a bit too simplistic and it may suggest the usefulness goes from 0% to 100% at a certain cutoff point. But I’d agree. The further along that path you go, the more predictive value you could draw from the stats. And I think your mention of 30-50 PA seems like a fair spot to start. Below that, just because a player has shown an advantage against another, I think there’s too much noise to try to claim there’s truly something to it.

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