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A Warning About Calculating Replacement Level

A Warning About Calculating Replacement Level

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Wow, I screwed up.

2014 Position ScarcityI recently finished my first rankings and projections for the 2014 season.  And after I sent all the projection information into the little black box, it kicked out some really crazy looking results.

Cano, Kipnis, Kinsler, Pedroia right in the heart of the first round?  Nice rankings, bonehead.

Here’s What I Did Wrong

Let me share my failure so you can avoid making the same mistake I did.  You might recall that the rankings approach I use includes an adjustment for “replacement level”. It’s essentially a way to capture positional scarcity.

2014 ErrorI usually assume a standard rotisserie format when creating rankings, so for a 12-team league starting 2B, SS, and MI, I assume “replacement level” is right around the 17 – 21st ranked players at each position (12 2B starters plus about 6 more drafted to play MI).  When I looked at this neighborhood of players, I came up with Scooter Gennett, Jordy Mercer, Dan Uggla, Dustin Ackley, and Darwin Barney as “Replacement Level”.  A sad cast of characters.  Darwin Barney?  How did I not catch that?!?!

2014 Position AdjustmentsI then went the next step and included this 2B replacement level measurement in the replacement level table for all positions (see the table image above).  It’s very clear that something is out of whack with 2B.  With the exception of catcher, which we know lacks in offensive production (and the effect is worsened for two catcher leagues), all the other positions are within 0.7 standings gain points of each other.

How I Assign Players’ Positions

It becomes very difficult to rank players that qualify at multiple positions.  I haven’t found an effective way to calculate it yet.  So I assign players to only one position, and I choose the position that is “weakest”.  Assigning a player to the weakest position gives them the most value, so I think it’s a reasonable shortcut to deal with players like this.

What I Screwed Up

I failed to account for position changes for several very solid second base options.  Specifically I still had Matt Carpenter (1B), Jedd Gyorko (3B), Martin Prado (OF), Jurickson Profar (SS), and Anthony Rendon (3B) listed at other positions.  But clearly all should qualify for 2B eligibility in 2014.

And I essentially failed twice, because there are at least two other solid fantasy contributors that I still had listed as SS, but would conceivably qualify at 2B.  Both Ben Zobrist and Jed Lowrie fit that bill.  If 2B has such a low replacement level, players that qualify at 2B and SS to be moved to the 2B listing.  Any good fantasy player would realize the weak 2B market and draft these multi-positional players to fill the void.

Replacement Level Needed To Move

So when I calculated replacement level and looked at those players ranked around the 17-21 spot for 2B, I was really looking at players 22-26.

2014 2B Scarcity2After adding the missing second basemen, spots 17-21 shift to become Jurickson Profar, Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks, Kolten Wong, and Kelly Johnson.  Then below Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro come in at 22 and 23.  That’s more like it!

Calculating replacement level off of these players shifts the ranking calculations of every 2B, and here are the updated top 16 rankings:

2014 Preseason Rankings

Wow, what a HUGE difference.  The puts the 2B more in line with what you would expect and it also has a rippling effect on other players too.  Goldschmidt moves from eighth to a much more reasonable fifth.

Lessons Learned

I need to incorporate a much stronger “reasonableness check” into my rankings and not blindly trust that I entered every formula, every Excel sort, every player position, and every player ID correctly.

Don’t make the same mistake as me!

But in the end, this was a very interesting exercise that showed me just how dramatic of an effect position scarcity can play in rankings (especially if it’s done incorrectly).  You always know it’s there, but it’s difficult to quantify if you don’t go searching for it.

I was just off by five or six players in determining replacement level.  If it only takes a handful of players to have this big of an effect on player valuation, think about what position changes and injuries during the season can theoretically mean.  Something to keep in mind for in season trading…

Thanks for reading.  Don’t make unsmart mistakes like me.

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2014 Mock Draft – Tulowitzki or Hanley?

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I recently participated in a 2014 mock draft with representatives from BaseballProf.com, BaseballPress.com, FantasyBaseballCrackerJacks.com, and Razzball.com.  Mock drafts at this point in the offseason are to be taken with a grain of salt (the draft was completed before the Fielder-Kinsler trade and before any free agency signings occurred).  But it was a very interesting exercise in seeing how perceptions of players have changed after the 2013 season.

My First Round Pick Raised Some Eye Brows

I had the eighth pick.  And as you can see from the results, the first six picks went as you might expect with names like Trout, Cabrera, Cano, and Goldschmidt.

Troy Tulowitzki was picked seventh, right before me (this is important, remember this).

Then it came to me and I was faced with a very difficult decision.  As a subscriber to the belief that, “You can’t win the league with your first pick, but you can lose it”, I typically preach being conservative in the first round.  But there was nothing “conservative” about the batch of players sitting before me:

  • Ryan Braun (PED risk)
  • Joey Votto (unspectacular of late)
  • Adam Jones (can’t argue with the production, but plate discipline bothers me)
  • Chris Davis (.240 batting average risk?)
  • Clayton Kershaw (too early for me at eight)

So I chose Hanley Ramirez.

The Response

To say the pick has been questioned by some is a bit of an understatement.  I was called out, labelled a masochist, and called crazy (30:40 mark).

Granted, I think these things were all said in jest. But I don’t think any other pick in the draft earned comments like these.

I Don’t Get It

I completely understand this being considered risky.  And I can buy into the argument that eighth is too early.  But let’s put that aside for now and debate something that I think is being overlooked.

I am surprised that nobody questioned the pick of Troy Tulowitzki just one pick earlier! I think Hanley Ramirez is the number one shortstop for the 2014 season.  Not Tulo.

Let’s go through the possible counterarguments.

Hanley Ramirez is Injury Prone

May I present to you games played, by season, for Tulowitzki and Ramirez:

Season Tulowitzki Ramirez
2006 n/a* 158
2007 155 154
2008 101 153
2009 151 151
2010 122 142
2011 143 92
2012 47 157
2013 126 86
Average 120.7 136.6

*This was Tulowitzki’s rookie year.  He did play in 25 MLB games, but I exclude it from the average because he didn’t play a full year and it was not due to injury.

There’s a perception out there that Hanley Ramirez is injury prone.  That should be revised to state that he has experienced significant injury problems in two of the last three years.  He’s been dependable the rest of his career.  And much more dependable than Tulowitzki.

Tulo has only surpassed the 140 games played threshold three times in seven years! That’s six out of eight for Hanley.

The two seasons Ramirez did not reach the 140 game mark were due to shoulder surgery and a thumb ligament injury.  I have nothing to back this up, but those don’t indicate “injury prone” to me, whereas Tulowitzki’s leg injuries do earn him the “injury prone” label in my mind.

Hanley Ramirez Is Getting Old.

He’s currently 29 and will be 30 during the 2014 season.  Tulowitzki is only 10 months younger.

Hanley Can’t Repeat His 21% Home Run per Fly Ball Rate

(more…)

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Strategy Tip - Widen Your Frame

Strategy Tip – Widen Your Frame

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You are in the middle of the pack in the league standings, with your biggest opportunity to gain rotisserie points being in HR and RBI.  Your other offensive categories are solid, but you recognize that the batting average category is tightly contested.  If your team batting average were to drop a few points it would cause you to plummet in the category.

You have received this trade offer:

You Give Player A:  projected for .290 BA, 80 R, 16 HR, 65 RBI, 15 SB

You Get Player B:  projected for .245 BA, 80 R, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB

Trades like this are difficult to evaluate.  Are the additional 10 HR and 20 RBI worth the 45 point decline in BA?

The proposed deal looks great from a HR and RBI perspective.  But you have concerns about the batting average aspect.  You believe the points you will gain in HR and RBI will be canceled out by the loss in batting average.

So you reject the deal.

Framing

Enter the concept of framing, or the lens through which you view and evaluate decisions. In the scenario above, this decision was made strictly under the assumption that this was a one-for-one trade.

While the offer was a one-for-one trade, you should not treat it that way.  This is a narrow point of view.  Your decision making can improve dramatically if you widen your frame.

Back To The Example

It’s short sighted to believe that this would be the only transaction you would make to solve your HR and RBI problem.  Whether you accept this trade offer or not, your next step is probably to evaluate your bench players against the free agent list and take action there to add HR and RBI potential or to protect yourself in BA.

You’re not going to cut Player A.  It will be someone else on the chopping block.  Someone like Bench Player X.

Bench Player X:  projected for .260, 60 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB

And let’s assume there are two interesting free agent candidates available:

Free Agent Y:  projected for .295, 60 R, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 10 SB

Free Agent Z:  projected for .250, 65 R, 22 HR, 65 RBI, 5 SB

Player X (and the free agents) should be included in your analysis of the trade.  Widen your decision making frame. (more…)

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Be A Contrarian… Zag

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In this post I am going to share with you one of the simplest and most effective fantasy baseball strategies you can implement.  You’re already aware of the strategy, but I’m going to dive a little deeper and dissect it into two components.  One to apply during the off-season and one for during the season.

Teach A Man To Fish…

“The fishing is the best where the fewest go…” ~ Timothy Ferriss

I cherry picked this quote from Timothy Ferriss’ book, “The 4-Hour Work Week”.  I read the book for some ideas on how to improve this blog.  And while it has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, this particular quote does a phenomenal job of illustrating this simple strategy I want to share with you.

We all know fantasy baseball is a competition.  It’s all about gaining an advantage and differentiating yourself from your opponents.

It is impossible to differentiate yourself if you’re following the crowd.  If you’re doing the same things as everyone else, you’ll get the same results.  If you’re fishing in the crowded fishing holes, you’re battling for the same school of fish.

To separate yourself from the pack you have to think differently.  You have to be different.  

If you’re reading the same fantasy baseball advice and commentary as the rest of the competition, you’ll be battling for the same players, you’ll be employing the same strategies, and winning might just come down to luck, timing, or random variations.  I hate luck!

OK.  How Do I Apply This?

The easiest way to execute this strategy is to be a contrarian.  To zag when everyone else is zigging.  To fish where no one else is fishing.  

Think to yourself about what everyone else is doing and what you can do to be and think differently.

You can implement this thinking on two levels:

  1. Behavior and preparation
  2. Player valuation

Let’s take a look.

1.  Behavior and Preparation

This is the part of the strategy to focus on during the off-season.  It is all about out working, out smarting, and “out learning” your opponents.  Do things they’re not.  Zag.

Read (shameless plug – I’ll give you two free e-books).  Get strategies and suggestions from respected experts.  Listen to podcasts.  Don’t just show up to the draft with a token cheat sheet.  Create your own rankings.

You might not be able to do all of these things.  Not all at once and not all in one off-season.  I’m sure you have a life outside of playing fake baseball games.

But if you can study up on two or three new statistics each off-season, you are developing skills and building knowledge that will help you long-term.  Think about the knowledge you can accumulate after three, five, or ten years.  Think about the competitive advantage you can create for yourself.

Most guys won’t be doing this.  They’ll be doing mock drafts, perusing a draft guide, and reading a few sleeper articles.  The same thing year-after-year.  You can take advantage of this.

I’m a firm believer that to be the best at this game you have to make your own decisions.  Only you can be the best manager of your fantasy team.  No expert can make educated decisions for your team.  By reading and studying strategy, you are building skills that will push you in that direction.

You’re off to a good start by reading this blog.  I’m not here to make decisions for your team.  Or to tell you who to pickup or trade for.  I’m here to share important resources you can use and help you develop the skills to give you a competitive advantage.

But how can you zag when it comes to specific player-related decisions?

2.  Player Valuation

This part of the strategy that applies most in-season.  And despite what you might think, it has little to do with Sabermetrics.  You don’t need great skill in Excel.  It has very little to do with data and player analysis.  This is more an exercise in economics than it is baseball statistics.

More specifically, recognizing the optimal time to buy or sell players AND acting during those times.   “Arbitrage” is another word for this, as Jonah Keri discusses in his book “The Extra 2 Percent”.

Everyone Knows Buy Low, Sell High.  You’re Not Telling Me Anything New.

I agree everyone knows this.  But all that “buy low, sell high” advice is in terms of player performance.

To take this strategy to the next level (more…)

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Web Queries Part 2: How To Make a Dynamic Excel Web Query

Web Queries Part 2: How To Make a Dynamic Excel Web Query

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We’re about to take web querying to the next level.  If you’re not familiar with web queries or if you missed our first discussion, you can brush up on Excel web query basics in Part 1 the Web Queries Series here (ha, that rhymes).

This will also make more sense if you’re familiar with the concepts of player IDs and website URLs discussed in this post.

The Weakness In Our First Query

You might recall that our first web query was specifically linked to Jose Fernandez’s player page at BrooksBaseball.net.  This is a great way to pull his specific pitch mix into an Excel file.  But it’s also pretty limiting that we can only pull in Jose Fernandez’s statistics and would have to create a new query to look up another player.  At that point it’s faster to just go to BrooksBaseball.net and start searching for players manually.

What is a Dynamic Web Query?

A dynamic query would be designed in such a way so that we only have to initially set up one query.  That query is not static, linked to one specific page or player, it’s dynamic, meaning it is linked to an input that can change.
Said another way, instead of linking the web query to player ID “11530“, link the web query to a specific cell in Excel.  Then whatever player ID is typed into that cell will be used in the web query.

A New Example

Instead of linking to BrooksBaseball.net, we’ll link to the player pages at Razzball.com. miguel_cabrera_razzballIf you haven’t checked them out, these player pages over are an incredible resource.  Take a look at Miguel Cabrera’s page using this link:

http://razzball.com/player/1744/Miguel+Cabrera/

And just to illustrate something about the URLs at Razzball, try this link:

http://razzball.com/player/1744/

They load to the same page.  The player’s name is not necessary for the page to load.

Stop Blabbering And Asking Me To Read Things.  Show Me How To Do This.

Sorry about that.  Video is more conducive to understanding this dynamic web query example.  Here you go:

Have Any Questions?

Don’t just watch the video.  Give this a try.  You could use this to more easily do projections, evaluate trades, set the ideal daily fantasy lineup, and much more.

If you like getting your hands dirty in Excel and doing player analysis like this, sign up for the Smart Fantasy Baseball newsletter where you’ll get more great ideas like this.

Be smart.

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Player ID Map Updated For 2014

Player ID Map Updated For 2014

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If you’re looking to get a jump start and create your own rankings for the 2014 fantasy baseball season, the SFBB Player ID Map has been updated for those players expected to be “fantasy relevant”.  ESPN’s player IDs have also been added to the spreadsheet.

You can download the updated map here.

A complete list of changes can be found in the “Change Log” tab of the spreadsheet.

ESPN_Player_ID

Some of the more notable additions to the Player ID Map are:

  • Jose Fernandez
  • Sonny Gray
  • Wil Myers
  • Anthony Rendon
  • Bruce Rondon
  • Zack Wheeler
  • Kolten Wong
  • Mike Zunino
  • Michael Wacha
  • Yasiel Puig
  • Xander Bogaerts
  • Brad Miller
  • Danny Farquhar
  • Danny Salazar
  • Taijuan Walker

If you’re new to the site, consider checking out these past posts that illustrate some interesting things you can do with player IDs.

Please let me know if I’ve missed anyone.  Stay smart.

 

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Baseball Professor

Just How Much Does Playing Time Matter?

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If you’re a dedicated Smart Fantasy Baseball reader, you know I like to harp on playing time as an often overlooked and under-weighted component of player value.  Well I now have some proof to back it up!

Check out this guest post I wrote at baseballprof.com.

Baseball Professor

I took the results of a real rotisserie league of mine and analyzed the standings to find out just how important the effect of playing time was on the final standings.  Pretty tables, Excel conditional formatting, and more.

While you’re over there, please take a look around.  The guys from Baseball Professor crank out a lot of high quality content.  I can only post one or two articles a week.  So if you’re looking for more smart fantasy information to consume, check out baseballprof.com.  These guys work their tails off and it’s sabermetric-oriented, interesting, and diverse.

The group was also kind enough to invite me to participate in an early 2014 mock draft. It feels great to already get some of those draft anticipation juices flowing.  In fact, I’ve already received a few e-mails from SFBB readers about how they can start preparing rankings and projections for the 2014 season.  It’ll be March before we know it!

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Web Queries Part 1: How to Make Your First Excel Web Query

Web Queries Part 1: How to Make Your First Excel Web Query

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Did you know there is an easy way to grab baseball statistics from web pages and easily pull the data into Excel?  And if that same data on the web changes, the new information will automatically pull into your Excel file.  The function in Excel is called a “web query” and it’s pretty amazing stuff.  I’ll show you how to make your first web query in the post to follow

Credit Where Credit Is Due

I recently learned of web queries when I was looking into features in Excel 2013, and more recently I came across the idea being applied to baseball statistics in Joseph Adler’s book, Baseball Hacks: Tips & Tools for Analyzing and Winning with Statistics.  If you enjoy the Excel and data analysis articles here at SmartFantasyBaseball.com, you need to get your hands on a copy of “Baseball Hacks”.  I cannot recommend it enough.  Web queries are only one of the 75 different “hacks” in the book.

Please note that I only recommend resources that I think are extremely valuable and that I use myself.  The links to Baseball Hacks above are affiliate links, through which I earn a small commission if you were to purchase the book. The book will cost you the same if you directly go to Amazon and search for it. If you prefer a generic link through which I receive no benefit, use this.

Acquire A Target

The first thing you’ll need to do is identify a web page that has the data you want to grab.  The information has to be in a table format.  For this first example we’ll go to one of my favorite sites, Brooksbaseball.net, and pull in the pitch type usage information for Jose Fernandez.

If you visit the link above or look at the image below, you can see the percentage use of each type of pitch is presented in a tabular format (below the graph).  It is this table that we will now link to an Excel file.

ImportHTML23
Image and pitch data courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net

Making Your First Web Query

You can watch the video or refer to the written step-by-step instructions below. (more…)

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How To Gain Rotisserie Points On The Last Day Of The Season

How To Gain Rotisserie Points On The Last Day Of The Season

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A common piece of preseason draft preparation advice is to know your league’s rules, to make sure you’re properly valuing players.  There are also some very important rules to keep in mind for the end of the season.  Rules a lot of fantasy managers aren’t aware of. Rules that will allow you a competitive advantage if you know them and how to apply them to your benefit.  

If you play in a rotisserie league on any of the major fantasy baseball providers (Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS), your league likely has some form of an innings pitched limit. Understanding how this limit is applied can allow you to gain an edge in the starting pitcher counting categories of wins and strikeouts.

The Rule

For each of these major websites, the innings pitched limit is applied at the end of the day on which you surpass the limit.  This means that you can actually surpass the limit established in your league rules by loading up on starting pitchers the day you expect to reach the threshold.

An Example

Assume your league has a 1,500 innings pitched limit.  During the final week of the season you sit at 1,490 innings pitched.  You then drop any pitcher not starting the next day and pick up a streaming option that does pitch.  You do this with all seven pitching spots in your line up.  The next day your seven starters pitch a combined 45 innings, strike out 38 batters, and earn four wins.

In this example, this strategy allows you to exceed the innings pitched limit by 35 innings, accumulating 25+ extra strikeouts and a few extra wins.  Depending on the standings in your league, this can most certainly allow you to gain a few additional points in the standings…  And maybe even win your league.

Applying This In Practice

This will be much easier to implement in daily transaction leagues where you can drop all your players on a given day and pick up tomorrow’s scheduled starters.  But you could conceivably do this in weekly lineup leagues if you plan far enough ahead.

Additionally, it only will make sense in certain scenarios.  Review your league standings to determine if you have points to gain in wins and strikeouts.  Weigh these potential points against any possible lost points if you suffer a bad ratio day (ERA, WHIP).

Thankfully it is much more difficult to move ratios significantly this late in the season.  In fact, if you have enough cushion in ERA and WHIP, consider only picking up strike out specialists, regardless of their ratios.

You need to carefully approach the innings limit first.  Be cautious not to accidentally go over before you can take full advantage of this.  I would recommend trying to get within 10 IP of the full limit.  Getting any closer could be dangerous.

Avoid a Backfire

Perform this strategy as close to the end of the season as possible.  Many managers won’t be aware of this rule and doing it too early will allow others to recognize what you are doing and open you up to a similar response, wiping out the advantage you created.  Further, you may be dropping some very good pitchers in order to pick up streaming candidates.  Trying this before the last several days of the season will allow opponents to pick up these very good players and potentially use them.

Don’t Believe Me?

Check out the rules web pages for your league host below.

Yahoo!

loophole2

ESPN

Note that ESPN has a games started limit, not an innings pitched limit.  But the same principles apply.

loophole1

CBS 

loophole3

Conclusion

This is an easy tactic to employ and you’re leaving points on the table if you don’t try it. Granted, it doesn’t make sense if you stand to lose points in ratios or if you face keeper-league ramifications.  But if you could use an extra 20 strikeouts and a couple wins, you can’t go wrong.

Make smart choices.

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Smart Elsewhere #7 – End Game Plays and Moves for Next Year with Cory Schwartz

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There may not have been a more targeted and useful fantasy baseball podcast all year than the September 13th episode of MLB.com Fantasy 411 podcast.  In this episode Cory Schwartz discusses a plethora of minor league September call ups that can either help you win your league this year or that have keeper-league ramifications for next year.  Later in the episode he’s joined by Paul Sporer, a favorite analyst of mine.

No matter where you are in the standings, this episode is worth 52 minutes of your time (or 35 minutes if you listen at 1.5 speed like I do).

Here’s a rundown of the episode:

  • September call ups that may help your team 0:00 – 9:00
  • Injured players and their prospects to return 9:00 – 17:15
  • Players being shut down 17:15 – 23:00
  • Paul Sporer interview 23:00 – 34:20
  • Paul Sporer and Schwartz discuss two start weeks – 34:20 – 42:45
  • Sporer and Schwartz handle listener e-mails – 42:45 – 51:53

The Players

Here are the minor league call up players Cory Schwartz discussed, with a specific focus on how they can benefit your team these last two weeks of the season.  These players are currently getting playing time but are all likely to be available in many leagues.

  • Josmil Pinto  C (MIN)
  • Chris Owings SS (ARI)
  • Tommy Medica 1B (SD)
  • Anthony Gose OF (TOR)
  • Billy Hamilton SS/OF (CIN)
  • Tanner Roark P (WAS)

The Injured

Cory also discussed several injured players and their prospects for the rest of the season.  These are guys that may or may not be useful to you in the last two weeks.

  • David Wright 3B (NYM)
  • Edwin Encarnacion 1B/3B (TOR)
  • Joe Mauer C (MIN)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury OF (BOS)
  • Allen Craig 1B/OF (STL)
  • Matt Kemp OF (LAD)
  • Howie Kendrick 2B (LAA)
  • Colby Rasmus OF (TOR)

Paul Sporer Joins The Podcast

After Schwartz discussed these end game player strategies, Paul Sporer joined the podcast to discuss next week’s two start pitchers.  And while I’m not a huge proponent of weekly head-to-head leagues, two start weeks can really help you finish a rotisserie season strong and reach innings limit caps if you’re slightly behind pace.  If you’re looking to eat up some innings, the advice of Sporer and Schwartz is definitely worth a listen.

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Links to the Podcast

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