17 Responses

  1. Rich Leonard
    Rich Leonard at |

    Will you explain how to import Holds and HRs Allowed for Ottoneu players?

  2. Tanner
    Tanner at |

    Hi Rich,

    HRs are included above (I just labelled them HR not HRA). But Holds are a difficult topic. Steamer does not project Holds. I don’t think any of the Fangraphs projection systems do. If you do know of a source that projects Holds let me know and I can try to create something for it. Feel free to e-mail me.

    Worst case scenario, you could go back to the earlier parts in this series and create a scoring cell for Holds, then add a column for Holds to the “Pitcher Ranks” tab, and then put in your own estimates/projections for players.

    Hope that helps some,


  3. Jason Barfknecht
    Jason Barfknecht at |

    CBS projects holds

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at |

      Thanks, Jason. I’ll look into that.

  4. Alex
    Alex at |

    here are the holds projections according to CBS. If it doesn’t come up automatically, set the “stats” statistic to “advanced”. Hope this helps. PS. thanks for this incredibly helpful 6 part series!

    1. Alex
      Alex at |
  5. Matt
    Matt at |

    Hi Tanner
    The only problem that I have is that my league accounts for complete games, hit batsmen, and quality starts. While the first two are not as important seeing that they will not change a players projected points a lot, I feel that quality starts can make a huge difference. I have already completed all 9 parts of your book and I was just seeing if you had an idea on how to include QS into my projections. Should I just add a couple dollars to pitchers I believe will do well in that category? Is there anywhere I can get QS info and include it in my excel file I already have? Do you think I can create my own column with some kind of formula in excel using innings pitched, hits allowed and runs allowed per nine innings? Any advice is great thank you!

    1. Tanner
      Tanner at |

      Hi Matt,

      I agree that depending on the point values, it may not make sense to waste time on hit batsmen or complete games.

      Quality Starts is a probably a different story. Again, it would depend on the point value, but for a pitcher making 30+ starts and having a QS in 70-80% of them, that is something to worry about. I think I would try to project QS myself, if I were you. This ESPN Leaderboard show QS and QS%. I would just use the average percentage of QS over the past two or three years as my best estimate.

      For example, if Kershaw has the following:

      2014 33 GS, 25 QS
      2013 33 GS, 27 QS
      2012 27 GS, 24 QS

      That’s 93 starts and 76 quality starts. That’s 81.7%.

      Once you have an estimated QS%, just multiply that by the number of starts you think they’ll make this year. It’ll be tedious, but it might make quite a difference in projected points for some guys.

      Hope that helps.


      1. Matt
        Matt at |

        Okay sounds good. Also, I played with a couple of formulas for quality starts and came up with one that I tested based on last year’s stats. It is based on projects innings pitched, protected earned runs, and protected games started. Although it wasn’t perfect it was pretty close. I saw an error of 4 as my largest error when testing it with last year’s stats. The formula is:

        I don’t know if it is reliable or if I am just crazy. I thought I could get your intake on it.

        1. Tanner
          Tanner at |

          Hi Matt, I appreciate the effort to come up with a formula to estimate this, but that’s beyond my level of comfort. I do notice that your formula yields odd results at very low numbers of starts (e.g. if a player pitches 10 innings over 2 starts and yields 2 ER).

          I feel a lot more safe trying to estimate a pitcher’s QS% over the past three seasons and multiplying that by the number of starts I think they’ll make. I haven’t studied the accuracy / predictive value of doing it that way, but seems like it should be a good estimator. Granted, players that have emerged recently like Corey Kluber may be discounted if they had low QS% before their breakout, but that may not be a bad thing, to build in some level of “regression”.

  6. Part 3: How To Calculate Rankings for a Points League | Smart Fantasy Baseball

    […] same steps with pitchers in order to develop our pitcher rankings worksheet. You can check out part four here or see all parts of the series in one place […]

  7. Michael
    Michael at |

    I finished steps 1-5. I have 41 pitchers (some retired, some active) that have no stats in my Pitchers Ranks sheet. Some, like Archie Bradley do have stats in in my Steamers Pitchers sheet. Ranks sheet shows Player ID thru IDFANGRAPHS CORRECTLY. The Pitcher Ranks sheet stats columns just show #NAME? How do I fix this?

  8. Brian
    Brian at |

    I have the projected points for batters and pitchers just fine, but how do you value a RP vs a SP when there is a 1500 IP limit. On one hand Kershaw will get 1400 points to Chapmans 600. On the other Chapman will get 10/IP to Kershaws 6.5/IP. Not sure how to correctly value them to find correct replacement levels and assign dollar values. Any suggestions?

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