Be A Contrarian… Zag

In this post I am going to share with you one of the simplest and most effective fantasy baseball strategies you can implement.  You’re already aware of the strategy, but I’m going to dive a little deeper and dissect it into two components.  One to apply during the off-season and one for during the season.

Teach A Man To Fish…

“The fishing is the best where the fewest go…” ~ Timothy Ferriss

I cherry picked this quote from Timothy Ferriss’ book, “The 4-Hour Work Week”.  I read the book for some ideas on how to improve this blog.  And while it has nothing to do with fantasy baseball, this particular quote does a phenomenal job of illustrating this simple strategy I want to share with you.

We all know fantasy baseball is a competition.  It’s all about gaining an advantage and differentiating yourself from your opponents.

It is impossible to differentiate yourself if you’re following the crowd.  If you’re doing the same things as everyone else, you’ll get the same results.  If you’re fishing in the crowded fishing holes, you’re battling for the same school of fish.

To separate yourself from the pack you have to think differently.  You have to be different.  

If you’re reading the same fantasy baseball advice and commentary as the rest of the competition, you’ll be battling for the same players, you’ll be employing the same strategies, and winning might just come down to luck, timing, or random variations.  I hate luck!

OK.  How Do I Apply This?

The easiest way to execute this strategy is to be a contrarian.  To zag when everyone else is zigging.  To fish where no one else is fishing.  

Think to yourself about what everyone else is doing and what you can do to be and think differently.

You can implement this thinking on two levels:

  1. Behavior and preparation
  2. Player valuation

Let’s take a look.

1.  Behavior and Preparation

This is the part of the strategy to focus on during the off-season.  It is all about out working, out smarting, and “out learning” your opponents.  Do things they’re not.  Zag.

Read (shameless plug – I’ll give you two free e-books).  Get strategies and suggestions from respected experts.  Listen to podcasts.  Don’t just show up to the draft with a token cheat sheet.  Create your own rankings.

You might not be able to do all of these things.  Not all at once and not all in one off-season.  I’m sure you have a life outside of playing fake baseball games.

But if you can study up on two or three new statistics each off-season, you are developing skills and building knowledge that will help you long-term.  Think about the knowledge you can accumulate after three, five, or ten years.  Think about the competitive advantage you can create for yourself.

Most guys won’t be doing this.  They’ll be doing mock drafts, perusing a draft guide, and reading a few sleeper articles.  The same thing year-after-year.  You can take advantage of this.

I’m a firm believer that to be the best at this game you have to make your own decisions.  Only you can be the best manager of your fantasy team.  No expert can make educated decisions for your team.  By reading and studying strategy, you are building skills that will push you in that direction.

You’re off to a good start by reading this blog.  I’m not here to make decisions for your team.  Or to tell you who to pickup or trade for.  I’m here to share important resources you can use and help you develop the skills to give you a competitive advantage.

But how can you zag when it comes to specific player-related decisions?

2.  Player Valuation

This part of the strategy that applies most in-season.  And despite what you might think, it has little to do with Sabermetrics.  You don’t need great skill in Excel.  It has very little to do with data and player analysis.  This is more an exercise in economics than it is baseball statistics.

More specifically, recognizing the optimal time to buy or sell players AND acting during those times.   “Arbitrage” is another word for this, as Jonah Keri discusses in his book “The Extra 2 Percent”.

Everyone Knows Buy Low, Sell High.  You’re Not Telling Me Anything New.

I agree everyone knows this.  But all that “buy low, sell high” advice is in terms of player performance.

To take this strategy to the next level Continue reading “Be A Contrarian… Zag”

Web Queries Part 2: How To Make a Dynamic Excel Web Query

We’re about to take web querying to the next level.  If you’re not familiar with web queries or if you missed our first discussion, you can brush up on Excel web query basics in Part 1 the Web Queries Series here (ha, that rhymes).

This will also make more sense if you’re familiar with the concepts of player IDs and website URLs discussed in this post.

The Weakness In Our First Query

You might recall that our first web query was specifically linked to Jose Fernandez’s player page at BrooksBaseball.net.  This is a great way to pull his specific pitch mix into an Excel file.  But it’s also pretty limiting that we can only pull in Jose Fernandez’s statistics and would have to create a new query to look up another player.  At that point it’s faster to just go to BrooksBaseball.net and start searching for players manually.

What is a Dynamic Web Query?

A dynamic query would be designed in such a way so that we only have to initially set up one query.  That query is not static, linked to one specific page or player, it’s dynamic, meaning it is linked to an input that can change.
Said another way, instead of linking the web query to player ID “11530“, link the web query to a specific cell in Excel.  Then whatever player ID is typed into that cell will be used in the web query.

A New Example

Instead of linking to BrooksBaseball.net, we’ll link to the player pages at Razzball.com. miguel_cabrera_razzballIf you haven’t checked them out, these player pages over are an incredible resource.  Take a look at Miguel Cabrera’s page using this link:

http://razzball.com/player/1744/Miguel+Cabrera/

And just to illustrate something about the URLs at Razzball, try this link:

http://razzball.com/player/1744/

They load to the same page.  The player’s name is not necessary for the page to load.

Stop Blabbering And Asking Me To Read Things.  Show Me How To Do This.

Sorry about that.  Video is more conducive to understanding this dynamic web query example.  Here you go:

Have Any Questions?

Don’t just watch the video.  Give this a try.  You could use this to more easily do projections, evaluate trades, set the ideal daily fantasy lineup, and much more.

If you like getting your hands dirty in Excel and doing player analysis like this, sign up for the Smart Fantasy Baseball newsletter where you’ll get more great ideas like this.

Be smart.

Player ID Map Updated For 2014

If you’re looking to get a jump start and create your own rankings for the 2014 fantasy baseball season, the SFBB Player ID Map has been updated for those players expected to be “fantasy relevant”.  ESPN’s player IDs have also been added to the spreadsheet.

You can download the updated map here.

A complete list of changes can be found in the “Change Log” tab of the spreadsheet.

ESPN_Player_ID

Some of the more notable additions to the Player ID Map are:

  • Jose Fernandez
  • Sonny Gray
  • Wil Myers
  • Anthony Rendon
  • Bruce Rondon
  • Zack Wheeler
  • Kolten Wong
  • Mike Zunino
  • Michael Wacha
  • Yasiel Puig
  • Xander Bogaerts
  • Brad Miller
  • Danny Farquhar
  • Danny Salazar
  • Taijuan Walker

If you’re new to the site, consider checking out these past posts that illustrate some interesting things you can do with player IDs.

Please let me know if I’ve missed anyone.  Stay smart.

 

Just How Much Does Playing Time Matter?

If you’re a dedicated Smart Fantasy Baseball reader, you know I like to harp on playing time as an often overlooked and under-weighted component of player value.  Well I now have some proof to back it up!

Check out this guest post I wrote at baseballprof.com.

Baseball Professor

I took the results of a real rotisserie league of mine and analyzed the standings to find out just how important the effect of playing time was on the final standings.  Pretty tables, Excel conditional formatting, and more.

While you’re over there, please take a look around.  The guys from Baseball Professor crank out a lot of high quality content.  I can only post one or two articles a week.  So if you’re looking for more smart fantasy information to consume, check out baseballprof.com.  These guys work their tails off and it’s sabermetric-oriented, interesting, and diverse.

The group was also kind enough to invite me to participate in an early 2014 mock draft. It feels great to already get some of those draft anticipation juices flowing.  In fact, I’ve already received a few e-mails from SFBB readers about how they can start preparing rankings and projections for the 2014 season.  It’ll be March before we know it!

Web Queries Part 1: How to Make Your First Excel Web Query

Did you know there is an easy way to grab baseball statistics from web pages and easily pull the data into Excel?  And if that same data on the web changes, the new information will automatically pull into your Excel file.  The function in Excel is called a “web query” and it’s pretty amazing stuff.  I’ll show you how to make your first web query in the post to follow

Credit Where Credit Is Due

I recently learned of web queries when I was looking into features in Excel 2013, and more recently I came across the idea being applied to baseball statistics in Joseph Adler’s book, Baseball Hacks: Tips & Tools for Analyzing and Winning with Statistics.  If you enjoy the Excel and data analysis articles here at SmartFantasyBaseball.com, you need to get your hands on a copy of “Baseball Hacks”.  I cannot recommend it enough.  Web queries are only one of the 75 different “hacks” in the book.

Please note that I only recommend resources that I think are extremely valuable and that I use myself.  The links to Baseball Hacks above are affiliate links, through which I earn a small commission if you were to purchase the book. The book will cost you the same if you directly go to Amazon and search for it. If you prefer a generic link through which I receive no benefit, use this.

Acquire A Target

The first thing you’ll need to do is identify a web page that has the data you want to grab.  The information has to be in a table format.  For this first example we’ll go to one of my favorite sites, Brooksbaseball.net, and pull in the pitch type usage information for Jose Fernandez.

If you visit the link above or look at the image below, you can see the percentage use of each type of pitch is presented in a tabular format (below the graph).  It is this table that we will now link to an Excel file.

ImportHTML23
Image and pitch data courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net

Making Your First Web Query

You can watch the video or refer to the written step-by-step instructions below. Continue reading “Web Queries Part 1: How to Make Your First Excel Web Query”

How To Gain Rotisserie Points On The Last Day Of The Season

A common piece of preseason draft preparation advice is to know your league’s rules, to make sure you’re properly valuing players.  There are also some very important rules to keep in mind for the end of the season.  Rules a lot of fantasy managers aren’t aware of. Rules that will allow you a competitive advantage if you know them and how to apply them to your benefit.  

If you play in a rotisserie league on any of the major fantasy baseball providers (Yahoo!, ESPN, CBS), your league likely has some form of an innings pitched limit. Understanding how this limit is applied can allow you to gain an edge in the starting pitcher counting categories of wins and strikeouts.

The Rule

For each of these major websites, the innings pitched limit is applied at the end of the day on which you surpass the limit.  This means that you can actually surpass the limit established in your league rules by loading up on starting pitchers the day you expect to reach the threshold.

An Example

Assume your league has a 1,500 innings pitched limit.  During the final week of the season you sit at 1,490 innings pitched.  You then drop any pitcher not starting the next day and pick up a streaming option that does pitch.  You do this with all seven pitching spots in your line up.  The next day your seven starters pitch a combined 45 innings, strike out 38 batters, and earn four wins.

In this example, this strategy allows you to exceed the innings pitched limit by 35 innings, accumulating 25+ extra strikeouts and a few extra wins.  Depending on the standings in your league, this can most certainly allow you to gain a few additional points in the standings…  And maybe even win your league.

Applying This In Practice

This will be much easier to implement in daily transaction leagues where you can drop all your players on a given day and pick up tomorrow’s scheduled starters.  But you could conceivably do this in weekly lineup leagues if you plan far enough ahead.

Additionally, it only will make sense in certain scenarios.  Review your league standings to determine if you have points to gain in wins and strikeouts.  Weigh these potential points against any possible lost points if you suffer a bad ratio day (ERA, WHIP).

Thankfully it is much more difficult to move ratios significantly this late in the season.  In fact, if you have enough cushion in ERA and WHIP, consider only picking up strike out specialists, regardless of their ratios.

You need to carefully approach the innings limit first.  Be cautious not to accidentally go over before you can take full advantage of this.  I would recommend trying to get within 10 IP of the full limit.  Getting any closer could be dangerous.

Avoid a Backfire

Perform this strategy as close to the end of the season as possible.  Many managers won’t be aware of this rule and doing it too early will allow others to recognize what you are doing and open you up to a similar response, wiping out the advantage you created.  Further, you may be dropping some very good pitchers in order to pick up streaming candidates.  Trying this before the last several days of the season will allow opponents to pick up these very good players and potentially use them.

Don’t Believe Me?

Check out the rules web pages for your league host below.

Yahoo!

loophole2

ESPN

Note that ESPN has a games started limit, not an innings pitched limit.  But the same principles apply.

loophole1

CBS 

loophole3

Conclusion

This is an easy tactic to employ and you’re leaving points on the table if you don’t try it. Granted, it doesn’t make sense if you stand to lose points in ratios or if you face keeper-league ramifications.  But if you could use an extra 20 strikeouts and a couple wins, you can’t go wrong.

Make smart choices.

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Smart Elsewhere #7 – End Game Plays and Moves for Next Year with Cory Schwartz

There may not have been a more targeted and useful fantasy baseball podcast all year than the September 13th episode of MLB.com Fantasy 411 podcast.  In this episode Cory Schwartz discusses a plethora of minor league September call ups that can either help you win your league this year or that have keeper-league ramifications for next year.  Later in the episode he’s joined by Paul Sporer, a favorite analyst of mine.

No matter where you are in the standings, this episode is worth 52 minutes of your time (or 35 minutes if you listen at 1.5 speed like I do).

Here’s a rundown of the episode:

  • September call ups that may help your team 0:00 – 9:00
  • Injured players and their prospects to return 9:00 – 17:15
  • Players being shut down 17:15 – 23:00
  • Paul Sporer interview 23:00 – 34:20
  • Paul Sporer and Schwartz discuss two start weeks – 34:20 – 42:45
  • Sporer and Schwartz handle listener e-mails – 42:45 – 51:53

The Players

Here are the minor league call up players Cory Schwartz discussed, with a specific focus on how they can benefit your team these last two weeks of the season.  These players are currently getting playing time but are all likely to be available in many leagues.

  • Josmil Pinto  C (MIN)
  • Chris Owings SS (ARI)
  • Tommy Medica 1B (SD)
  • Anthony Gose OF (TOR)
  • Billy Hamilton SS/OF (CIN)
  • Tanner Roark P (WAS)

The Injured

Cory also discussed several injured players and their prospects for the rest of the season.  These are guys that may or may not be useful to you in the last two weeks.

  • David Wright 3B (NYM)
  • Edwin Encarnacion 1B/3B (TOR)
  • Joe Mauer C (MIN)
  • Jacoby Ellsbury OF (BOS)
  • Allen Craig 1B/OF (STL)
  • Matt Kemp OF (LAD)
  • Howie Kendrick 2B (LAA)
  • Colby Rasmus OF (TOR)

Paul Sporer Joins The Podcast

After Schwartz discussed these end game player strategies, Paul Sporer joined the podcast to discuss next week’s two start pitchers.  And while I’m not a huge proponent of weekly head-to-head leagues, two start weeks can really help you finish a rotisserie season strong and reach innings limit caps if you’re slightly behind pace.  If you’re looking to eat up some innings, the advice of Sporer and Schwartz is definitely worth a listen.

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Links to the Podcast

3 Free Alternatives to Microsoft Excel Every Fantasy Baseball Manager Should Know

Microsoft Excel is my go-to spreadsheet application, but what if you don’t have access to Excel?  After all, it’s expensive to purchase ($100+).  Are you out of luck when it comes to being a data-driven fantasy baseball player?

Hardly.  There are several free options available and they’re more comparable to Excel than you might think.

Microsoft One Drive (Online Access to a Free Version of Excel)

You can set up an online Microsoft OneDrive account free of charge.  This gets you access to a free online version of Microsoft Excel that offers most of the capabilities available in the desktop version.  You can see a screenshot of the program below.

ExcelAlt1

It’s definitely a viable spreadsheet application.  It offers nearly all the built in functions (VLOOKUP, SUM, IF, etc.) of the traditional Microsoft Excel.  It can meet the needs of any basic to moderately complex spreadsheet.

But there are several features I like to include in more advanced spreadsheets (like the sheet created in the SmartFantasyBaseball “Create Your Own Fantasy Baseball Rankings” series), that can’t be utilized in this online version of Excel.  Most notably, you cannot create named cells or named ranges.  Additionally, you cannot set up data validation, like drop down menus.  These aren’t deal breakers, you can likely work around the absence of these items.  But they’re definitely nice to have.

I’m also not aware of a way to link one Excel Sky Drive file to the data in another file saved in Sky Drive.  This would be nice if you have one central Excel file that stores a lot of data and you want to be able to access it from multiple files that will rely upon that data.  I don’t typically link documents together in this fashion, but it’s good to know.  Online Excel files do have certain file size limitations that might make linking necessary (and you won’t be able to do it).

Google Drive (Free Online Access to Google’s Spreadsheet application)

If you have a Gmail account or if you register for a free Google account, you get access to Google Drive and free online file storage.  You then get access to use Google’s free online word processor, spreadsheet, and presentation applications.

ExcelAlt2

In my opinion, Google offers a more comprehensive online solution than Microsoft does. I find file management is a lot easier in Google’s interface.  And within a Google Spreadsheet, you can use some of the advanced features not available in the online version of Excel.  For example, you can create named ranges, link to other Google spreadsheets, and even pull in other content on the web.

I’ve created several complicated spreadsheets within Google documents using named ranges, upwards of 100 tabs, and linking to external Google Spreadsheets documents, and I’ve been very happy with the results.

Open Office (Free Suite Of Office-Like Applications)

I do think Google’s online spreadsheet application is a strong alternative, but no online spreadsheet is going to replace the capabilities of a spreadsheet saved, accessed, and run directly from your own computer.

When working on your own computer (as opposed to a spreadsheet running over the web), the functionality is improved, calculations are processed faster, the program is more powerful, and the usability is much better.  Fortunately, we have OpenOffice, which is a free alternative to Microsoft Office’s product line.  OpenOffice has a spreadsheet, word processor, and presentation application, all available free of charge.

Millions of people use the OpenOffice suite and the look and feel of the programs is similar to older Microsoft Office interfaces.  If you’re used to the Ribbon interface used by Microsoft Office products in the last several years, the menu systems may feel antiquated.  But the program gets the job done.

OpenOffice file formats are generally interoperable with Microsoft file formats, meaning you can save OpenOffice documents and spreadsheets into Office file formats for sharing with Office users.

ExcelAlt3

My Recommendation

I enjoy the more robust experience of running a spreadsheet application from the computer, as opposed to one running of the web, but I really like the experience of using Google Drive and the Google spreadsheet application.  If you’ve read some of my longer posts you’ll know that I’m a fan of using named ranges, and that gives Google a big advantage of Microsoft Excel’s online web app.  I also use Gmail and find the Google Drive app for my phone is very easy to use and access data from.

So I think it comes do to your own preferences and if you prefer a traditional program running on your computer or if you like the mobility, access, and backup benefits offered by a web-based application.  OpenOffice is a very strong (and free!) option to run locally.  And Google wins the web app battle, in my mind.

Conclusion

Don’t think you can’t implement the ideas or use the tools from SmartFantasyBaseball just because you don’t have access to Microsoft Excel.  There are high quality and free alternatives available to you.

Be smart.

 

Case Study: How To Assess Your Rotisserie League Standings

The case study below looks in detail at how to perform a review of your league standings.  This specific case study is written from the perspective of performing this review in late August, but reviewing and assessing your league standings is a valuable exercise to perform at any point in the season.

This review will guide the moves you make throughout the season.  It’s absolutely critical to have an in-depth understanding of the league standings.  This is not a simple exercise.  It will take time.  But that’s exactly why it’s advantageous and why it can be an advantage for you.

It’s Late August.  You’re In The Middle Of The League Standings.

How many rotisserie points can you legitimately expect to gain in the standings at this point of the season?  If you think you’re out of it, or don’t think you can catch the leaders because you’re in fifth place, I’d encourage you to take a closer look.  You might be surprised at how significantly things can still change.

The Standings

For the rest of this case study, assume the standings shown in the table below.  Let’s look at things from the perspective of the team in fifth place, E.A.B.O.D.  Does this team have a chance to catch the leader?

The first thing worth noting, besides the fact that I play in a nine team league (I’ve been trying to tell you I’m just a “regular guy”), is the first place team has a sizeable lead over the rest of the pack and sits at 68.5 points.  Then things are tightly bunched with four team near the mid-50s.

Standings1

This Is Just A Battle For Second PLace, Who Cares

We’ll take a look at if catching the first place team is possible in a moment.  But even if this is just a four-team battle for second place, taking this battle seriously, applying a well-devised strategy, and making a full-fledged effort to pass the current fourth, third, and second place teams is a valuable exercise.  What if next year it’s a four-team race for first?  Or even a two-team race?  If you’re able to win a four-team race over the last month of the season, next year’s two-team race will seem simple.

I got the idea for this case study while listening to Todd Zola on the August 9th edition of the BaseballHQ Radio Podcast.  His point was that it really doesn’t matter what place you are in the standings.  The exercise of going through a review of your team and the league standings in order to gain a few points is great practice.  Always seek to improve your team.  You’ll learn a lot from these seemingly unimportant battles.

Let’s Take A Closer Look

Remember, with roughly one month to play, we currently sit in 5th place at 52 points.  If we are to somehow pull this miracle off, we would need to reach 69 points, meaning we must somehow climb 17 points in the standings.

The best way to figure out how many points are possible?  Go category-by-category through the standings and figure out what points can easily be earned and those that could be earned with a little luck.  It’s also worth looking at the categories in which we could lose points (easily or due to bad luck).

Starting with runs, we’ve got a total of 830 runs to this point in the season.  Trying to be realistic about how many runs can actually be made up in about one month, we’ll say making up one run a day is possible, but not likely.  More likely, making up 15 runs over the next 30 days is a realistic possibility.  So anyone within 15 runs of our 830 total can be caught, giving us another rotisserie point.

Looking at the actual standings below, only one team is between our 830 runs and the attainable 845 (that’s SpartyOn with 841).  One additional team, The Naturals, is within 30 (at 857 runs to our 830).

Standings2

So that’s one standing point we can realistically gain (catching SpartyOn) and one more we could possibly gain, but it’s unlikely (The Naturals).  Note, if you’re also concerned about being caught in the standings, tracking the points you could potentially lose is another valuable exercise.  There is one team hot on our tails, with 827 R, and two others within 30 runs (805 and 802).

Summarizing the points we could gain or lose:

Standings13

Now extend this exercise out to the remaining hitting categories.  We’ll say anyone within 12 HR can realistically be caught and within 20 could potentially be caught.  Within 15 RBI can legitimately be caught and 30 RBI is possible but unlikely.  10 SB can reasonable be caught, 20 would be possible but unlikely.  And within .003 BA points can be caught, .006 would be possible but unlikely.

Standings3

Pitching Is A Little More Complicated

This particular league happens to have an innings limit of 1,550 innings.  Innings can be manipulated more easily than games played by hitters.  A team could theoretically start streaming a multitude of pitchers and easily increase innings in the short-term, whereas the limited number of lineup spots and days off for hitters prevents you from increasing at bats in the short-term.  This leads to potentially distorted pitching standings.

Look at the current standings below.  Take for instance, The Heat in seventh place.  The team is clearly ahead of everyone else’s pace for innings pitched and will hit the 1,550 cap soon.  The 1,185 strikeouts in 1,364 innings isn’t nearly as impressive as the 1,145 strikeouts the Warriors (eighth place) have in 1,132 innings.  The Warriors need only 40 strike outs in the next 200 IP to catch The Heat.  So we have to take the innings pitched distortion into account.

Standings14

The innings pitched distortion can only affect raw counting stats like W, SV, and K.  Pitching more or less innings can’t directly affect rate statistics like ERA and WHIP.

Looking more closely at wins, we can calculate the rate at which teams are earning wins by dividing wins by total IP.  This gives us “Wins per inning”.  Granted, this is an odd statistic and it’s not useful for many things, but it will help us remove the distortion caused by teams simply having more innings pitched than others.

Our hypothetical team in this case study is highlighted in yellow with 73 wins, or 0.065 wins per IP.  Looking at other teams, we actually have a higher wins per inning than the team with 1,364 innings pitched.  Even though that team has 86 wins, we are earning wins at a faster rate (0.065 vs. 0.063).  Theoretically we can pass this team simply by continuing to start our current pitchers.  Once we get to 1,364 innings, we should have more than 86 wins.

The other team with 86 wins (in 1st place) can’t be caught.  We have nearly the same number of innings (1,129.33 vs. 1,129.66), but they already have 86 wins to our 73.  And because we are in third place for wins (86, 86, then our 73), there are no more points to be made up in wins.

Standings6

Continue reading “Case Study: How To Assess Your Rotisserie League Standings”

Case Study – Weighted Average Probabilities and Ryan Braun

Hindsight is 20-20.  We all know this.  And now that Ryan Braun has been suspended for his association in the Biogenesis scandal, it’s easy to to say that we overvalued Braun in our draft preparation.  But let’s look back to what we knew in the preseason and use this as a learning opportunity to apply a lesson in weighted average probability and expected results.

What Did We Know?

News surfaced in early 2013 that Ryan Braun and numerous other players were associated with Biogenesis.  Documents were obtained that showed an official link between the players and the clinic.   There was speculation that the players involved could face suspensions during the season.

We didn’t know much more than this.  Would players miss 50 games?  100 games? Would the suspensions come down during the 2013 season?  Or after?  Could MLB even uncover enough evidence to support suspensions?

What Could Happen?

For Braun, we could reasonably assume he’d be the target of a 100-game suspension. He was nearly the recipient of a 50-game suspension in the fall of 2012, but managed to avoid it on a technicality.  So new evidence could push him from a first-time offender to a second-time offender (and a 100-game penalty).

Let’s Start A Basic Projection For Braun’s 2013 Season

If we are to build a projection for Braun’s 2013 season, a reasonable place to start would be to look at career averages.  Braun played a partial season in 2007 and played at least 150 games in 2008-2012.  So let’s use these last five years of “full seasons” and figure out the average production as our baseline estimate:

WAP1

These average to 154 games, 672 plate appearances, 34 home runs, 105 runs, 109 RBI, and 22 SB.

But What If This Isn’t An Average Season?

We know Braun was nearly caught as a PED user in 2012. So what if he was scared into stopping his use of PEDs?  Can we build this into our estimate?

We don’t have any scientific data to understand the exact effect of PEDs.  So let’s throw out a rough guess and say we think the effect of stopping the use of PEDs would slightly decrease his production.  We’ll say his numbers would remain at 154 games and 672 plate appearances, but he drops to 25 HR, 90 R, 90 RBI, and 20 SB.

To summarize our two scenarios:

WAP2

How Likely Are These Scenarios To Occur?

You might have your own beliefs about the likelihood of each, but for the sake of example let’s say we think Braun is 90% likely to have another year in line with his past five seasons and 10% likely to experience a year where the effect of no PEDs drags his performance down some.

WAP3

And What If He Gets Suspended?

Again, for the sake of illustrating a simple example, assume a 50% chance Braun does not get suspended during the year and a 50% chance Braun misses half the season.

These 50-50 alternatives are subsets of our previous two scenarios.  So the 90% chance Braun has another average year now becomes a 45% chance (90% * 50%) he has a career average year and does not get suspended and a 45% chance he has a career average year and does get suspended.

Likewise, the 10% chance he sees a drop in productivity due to coming off PEDs is split into a 5% bucket of not being suspended and a 5% bucket of being suspended.

Regardless of the scenarios we lay out, we must remain at 100% total probability for all the possible outcomes.  Something has to happen.  And with 45, 45, 5, and 5, we’re still at 100%.

WAP4

Weighted Average Probability, Expected Results

Once you have probabilities for each possible outcome, it’s easy to calculate the total expected result.  We simply multiply the expected statistics for each scenario by the likelihood of that scenario.  This is the “weighting”.

Look at the 5 Year Avg – No Suspension example.  We have determined this scenario has a 45% chance of occurring.  45% multiplied by 672 plate appearances is 302.40.  45% multiplied by 34 home runs is 15.3.  And so on.

Here are the weighted averages of all scenarios:

WAP5

Our overall or actual expectation is the sum of each different weighted scenario.  You can see this total at the bottom of the table above.  After taking all possible scenarios and their probabilities into account, we estimated Braun for 25 HR, 78 R, 80 RBI, and 16 SB.

The Bigger Point

This approach of calculating weighted average probabilities can be used in many different scenarios.  Do you think there’s a 25% chance Troy Tulowitzki plays a full season, a 50% chance he plays 120 games, and a 25% chance he plays 80 games?  Do you think a rookie has a 25% chance of being called up in May, 25% in June, and 50% in July?  Do you think there’s a 50% chance a player will bat leadoff during the year and a 50% chance he’ll bat 9th?  Is there a 25% chance a rookie call-up will break onto the scene and be very productive, a 50% chance he’ll be an average player, and a 25% chance he’ll be sent back to the minors?

In any of these situations, calculate an estimated outcome and weight it using the probability of that outcome occurring.

Be Smart

Thanks for reading and continue to make smart choices.