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How To Calculate Custom Rankings for a Points League: Part 6 - Replacement Level and Position Scarcity

How To Calculate Custom Rankings for a Points League: Part 6 – Replacement Level and Position Scarcity

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Welcome to the first part of a series in which we’ll go step-by-step through the process of using Microsoft Excel to calculate your own rankings for a fantasy baseball points league (as opposed to rotisserie or head-to-head rotisserie).

Whether you’re in a standard points league at a major site like ESPN or a more advanced Ottoneu league at Fangraphs, this process will help you develop customized rankings for your league.  These instructions can be used for a season-long points league or a weekly head-to-head points league.

If you’re looking for info on how to rank players for a roto league, look here.

I recommend going through all the parts of the series in order. If you missed an earlier part of this series, you can find it here:

smartfantasybb_3d2 - 500x635

Please note that this series has been adapted into a nine-part book that also shows you how to convert points over replacement into dollar values and how to calculate in-draft inflation. Click here if you’re interested in reading more about the conversion to dollar values.

ABOUT THESE INSTRUCTIONS

  • The projections used in this series are the Steamer 2015 preseason projections from Fangraphs.  If you see projections that you disagree with or that appear unusual, it’s likely because I began writing this series in December 2014, still early in the off-season.
  • For optimal results, you will want to be on Excel 2007 or higher.  Some of the features used were not in existence in older versions.
  • I use Excel 2013 for the screenshots included in the instructions.  There may be some subtle differences between Excel 2007, 2010, and 2013.
  • I can’t guarantee that all of formulas used in this series will work in Excel for Mac computers.  I apologize for this.  I don’t understand why Excel operates differently and has different features on different platforms.

IN PART 6

In this part of the series we will discuss the concept of replacement level, prove that it can lead to better decision making, demonstrate how it is an objective measure for making positional scarcity adjustments, and then incorporate replacement level adjustments for each position into our projected point values.

Accounting For Replacement Level

Heading in to the 2015 season, Ryan Braun is projected by Steamer to produce 82 R, 25 HR, 82 RBI, and 13 SB (or 752 points in my example league).   Buster Posey is projected for 69 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, and 1 SB (681 points).

Braun’s raw production is clearly superior to that of Posey.  But is that all we need to look at to conclude which player is more valuable?  Don’t we need to include some measure of “replacement level” in this calculation?  Isn’t that what WAR is all about?  Wins Above Replacement?

How do I account for the fact that the day after our fantasy draft I can go out to the free agent listing and pick up an OF that would produce 61 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, and 15 SB (478 points), or a Catcher that would produce 38 R, 9 HR, 45 RBI, and 7 SB (319 points)?

Clearly the replacement catcher is much less productive than the replacement level OF.

Using Points League Settings

You’ve been following me through the creation of a rankings file for an example league. We just finished converting projected statistics into point values for this league, so let’s take a look at comparing Braun to Alejandro De Aza (a hypothetical replacement level OF) and Posey to Christian Bethancourt (a hypothetical replacement level catcher).

Player Projected Points
Ryan Braun 752
Alejandro De Aza 478
Buster Posey 681
Christian Bethancourt 319

Braun is projected for 274 points over the replacement level outfielder and Posey is projected for 362 points more than the replacement level catcher!

That means Posey is roughly 88 points more valuable than Braun, despite having lower overall projected points.

If you’re having a hard time digesting that, think of it this way.  Let’s assume Braun and Posey represent second round draft picks (just go with it, don’t argue) and De Aza and Bethancourt will be last round draft picks (replacement level).

The team that takes Braun in the second round and Bethancourt in the last round would be projected for 1,071 points.  The team that takes Posey in the second round and De Aza in the last round would be projected for 1,159 points.  Again, that’s 88 more points than the Braun/Bethancourt combination!

This is why considering replacement level matters.

Positional Scarcity Adjustments

You have probably come across suggestions or you might have even thought to yourself that you should “bump” a player up your rankings because he plays a weak position.  But is this really appropriate?  How much do you bump him up?

Another great benefit of incorporating replacement level into your rankings is that it makes your positional scarcity adjustments for you!

You just saw how we proved Posey’s 681 points as a catcher are more valuable than Braun’s 752 from the outfield.  Rather than arbitrarily “bumping” Posey in the rankings, we can figure out exactly where he should be ranked by calculating his “Points Above Replacement”.

Let’s look at the top 15 projected hitters in my example points league.PROJECTED_TOP_15

Not a catcher to be found.  But if we presume this league has 24 starting catchers (you need to read this if you play in a two-catcher league), things change significantly when we calculate points above replacement.TOP_15_OVER_REPLACEMENT

Three catchers rocket into the top 10 while OF and 1B are devalued some.  This movement that takes place after you calculate Points Over Replacement Level IS THE POSITIONAL SCARCITY ADJUSTMENT.  Players move exactly the proper amount.  No guesswork.

EXCEL FUNCTIONS AND FORMULAS IN THIS POST

Nothing really new here.  We’ll just be using things we’ve already used in earlier parts of the series.  We will use another VLOOKUP formula, create a table, and use structured references to build some formulas.

STEP-BY-STEP INSTRUCTIONS

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How to Use Excel to Determine Replacement Level

How to Use Excel to Determine Replacement Level

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Who is the replacement level shortstop in a 12-team league that starts one shortstop and one middle infield position?

We know there will be at least 12 shortstops drafted in this scenario.  But will there be 15, 16, 17, 18, or more drafted?  And where does that put the replacement level shortstop at?

This concept of replacement level has always been a little bit of a problem for me.  In my original series about ranking players, I mentioned that in this 12-team scenario, that we would have 36 combined 2B and SS drafted, and to simplify things we could assume that would be 18 second basemen and 18 shorststops.

But that’s not a precise enough answer.

If we’re trying to squeeze every drop of value from our drafts, we should determine precisely who the replacement level player is at each position.  After all, replacement level is a huge driver in the calculation of a player’s value.

So we need to get it right.

What You Can Expect

I’m going to show you a system I’ve started using that will help you identify:

  • The starters at each position (e.g. top 12 1B, top 60 OF, etc.)
  • The corner and middle infielders (the next 12 best 1B/3B and 2B/SS)
  • The 12 utility players (the next 12 best players at any position)
  • The replacement level player at each position

The system is very easy to do.  I was forced to come up with it out of necessity when I was working on my recent analysis of the past five years of draft results.  For that post I had to calculate projected and actual dollar values for each of the last five seasons. So I needed a fool-proof method for determining replacement level 10 times in a short period of time and I also wanted to be able to come back to each set of data and easily be able to tell what group each player fell into.  Thus the color coding.

Replacement_Level
Here’s a little taste of what we’re going to do. I’ll show you a process that will take you only a few minutes to color code and clearly document players into groups of Starters, CI/MI, UTIL, and Replacement Level.

Excel Features You Should Know

There are three pretty neat features of Excel that I used during this process that you may not be familiar with, and they might be able to save you a lot of time: (more…)

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You Need To Read This If You Play In a Two-Catcher League

You Need To Read This If You Play In a Two-Catcher League

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In this post I’m going to demonstrate why you can’t simply rely upon the rankings information you find online.  Widely available rankings do not account for the intricacies of your league.  These differences can lead to large swings in the valuations of players.

You should be calculating your own rankings specific to your own league format, especially if you play in a two-catcher league.  There is a valuation problem waiting to be exploited in two-catcher leagues.  

Please make sure you read to the end.  I get a little carried away with examples below, but there are some important conclusions at the end.

This Is Not a Lie

When I run Steamer’s 2014 projections through my ranking system, Buster Posey and Wilin Rosario come out as top 10 players.

Let that sink in.  In all the draft preparation and rankings articles you’ve read so far, have you seen any catcher crack the top ten?

You’re a Moron.  Your Ranking System Must Be Wrong.

Before you dismiss this out of hand, let’s work through a little exercise.  As with most scenarios I outline at this site, let’s assume a 12-team mixed league using standard 5×5 rotisserie categories, 14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 5 OF, UTIL), 9 pitchers, and no bench. This would mean 24 catchers would be drafted, 60 OF, and 168 total hitters.

So as not to pick on any one analyst, I’ll be referring to the consensus fantasy baseball hitter rankings that FantasyPros.com puts out (if you don’t use this tool, it’s pretty neat.  You can instantly average the rankings of your favorite analysts).

As of March 10th, Buster Posey comes in as the top catcher and 36th ranked hitter.  Matt Holliday comes in as the 35th ranked hitter.

Matt_Holliday_Buster_Posey

Let’s say Team A drafts Holliday and with the very next pick, Team B drafts Posey.

If a ranking system were really accurate, you would think the combined stats from Holliday (the 35th ranked player) and Team A’s final draft pick should be very similar to the combined stats of Posey (the 36th ranked player) and Team B’s final draft pick.

Let’s Take a Look

Because Team A passed on Posey, let’s assume they decide to wait until the last round of the draft to fill their second catcher slot by taking the 24th ranked catcher.  In those same consensus rankings, the 24th catcher is Welington Castillo.

Wellington_Castillo

And because Team B wasn’t able to take Holliday with their pick, they decide to wait until the last round to draft their fifth outfielder.  When the time comes, Team B selects the 60th ranked OF (12 teams * five OF per team).  The consensus rankings tell us Kole Calhoun is that guy.

Kole_Calhoun

So Team A ends up with Holliday and Castillo.  Team B ends up with Posey and Calhoun. Applying Steamer’s 2014 projections to these two teams we get:

Player AB H AVG HR R RBI SB
Holliday 530 152 .287 22 78 81 4
Castillo 365 92 .252 12 41 45 2
Total Team A 895 244 .273 34 119 126 6
Player AB H AVG HR R RBI SB
Posey 557 165 .296 20 78 84 2
Calhoun 529 141 .267 17 72 69 11
Total Team B 1,086 306 .282 37 150 153 13

Wow.

Team B wins every category.  The reason for this is the concept of the replacement level players.  The 60th (last picked) OF is still pretty productive, whereas the last catcher selected is a problem.

Maybe Posey should be ranked higher if he gives you that big of an advantage.

You Cherry Picked This Example.  No Way Does This Work Out Like This Every Time.

It is very possible Calhoun is also slanting the results.  When I run his Steamer projection through my ranking system he comes out as the 41st OF (so the consensus rankings are underrating him by ranking him the 60th OF).  I think he’s a terrific sleeper.  So let’s drop twenty three more spots down to Gerardo Parra.

Why Parra, you ask?  Well, he does come out as the 60th best OF when I run the 2014 Steamer projections through my ranking calculations.  He’s ranked the #83 OF in the FantasyPros consensus ranks.

Gerardo_Parra

It would seem that dropping 23 spots further should affect things significantly.  But let’s take a look:

Player AB H AVG HR R RBI SB
Holliday 530 152 .287 22 78 81 4
Castillo 365 92 .252 12 41 45 2
Total Team A 895 244 .273 34 119 126 6

(more…)

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A Warning About Calculating Replacement Level

A Warning About Calculating Replacement Level

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Wow, I screwed up.

2014 Position ScarcityI recently finished my first rankings and projections for the 2014 season.  And after I sent all the projection information into the little black box, it kicked out some really crazy looking results.

Cano, Kipnis, Kinsler, Pedroia right in the heart of the first round?  Nice rankings, bonehead.

Here’s What I Did Wrong

Let me share my failure so you can avoid making the same mistake I did.  You might recall that the rankings approach I use includes an adjustment for “replacement level”. It’s essentially a way to capture positional scarcity.

2014 ErrorI usually assume a standard rotisserie format when creating rankings, so for a 12-team league starting 2B, SS, and MI, I assume “replacement level” is right around the 17 – 21st ranked players at each position (12 2B starters plus about 6 more drafted to play MI).  When I looked at this neighborhood of players, I came up with Scooter Gennett, Jordy Mercer, Dan Uggla, Dustin Ackley, and Darwin Barney as “Replacement Level”.  A sad cast of characters.  Darwin Barney?  How did I not catch that?!?!

2014 Position AdjustmentsI then went the next step and included this 2B replacement level measurement in the replacement level table for all positions (see the table image above).  It’s very clear that something is out of whack with 2B.  With the exception of catcher, which we know lacks in offensive production (and the effect is worsened for two catcher leagues), all the other positions are within 0.7 standings gain points of each other.

How I Assign Players’ Positions

It becomes very difficult to rank players that qualify at multiple positions.  I haven’t found an effective way to calculate it yet.  So I assign players to only one position, and I choose the position that is “weakest”.  Assigning a player to the weakest position gives them the most value, so I think it’s a reasonable shortcut to deal with players like this.

What I Screwed Up

I failed to account for position changes for several very solid second base options.  Specifically I still had Matt Carpenter (1B), Jedd Gyorko (3B), Martin Prado (OF), Jurickson Profar (SS), and Anthony Rendon (3B) listed at other positions.  But clearly all should qualify for 2B eligibility in 2014.

And I essentially failed twice, because there are at least two other solid fantasy contributors that I still had listed as SS, but would conceivably qualify at 2B.  Both Ben Zobrist and Jed Lowrie fit that bill.  If 2B has such a low replacement level, players that qualify at 2B and SS to be moved to the 2B listing.  Any good fantasy player would realize the weak 2B market and draft these multi-positional players to fill the void.

Replacement Level Needed To Move

So when I calculated replacement level and looked at those players ranked around the 17-21 spot for 2B, I was really looking at players 22-26.

2014 2B Scarcity2After adding the missing second basemen, spots 17-21 shift to become Jurickson Profar, Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks, Kolten Wong, and Kelly Johnson.  Then below Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro come in at 22 and 23.  That’s more like it!

Calculating replacement level off of these players shifts the ranking calculations of every 2B, and here are the updated top 16 rankings:

2014 Preseason Rankings

Wow, what a HUGE difference.  The puts the 2B more in line with what you would expect and it also has a rippling effect on other players too.  Goldschmidt moves from eighth to a much more reasonable fifth.

Lessons Learned

I need to incorporate a much stronger “reasonableness check” into my rankings and not blindly trust that I entered every formula, every Excel sort, every player position, and every player ID correctly.

Don’t make the same mistake as me!

But in the end, this was a very interesting exercise that showed me just how dramatic of an effect position scarcity can play in rankings (especially if it’s done incorrectly).  You always know it’s there, but it’s difficult to quantify if you don’t go searching for it.

I was just off by five or six players in determining replacement level.  If it only takes a handful of players to have this big of an effect on player valuation, think about what position changes and injuries during the season can theoretically mean.  Something to keep in mind for in season trading…

Thanks for reading.  Don’t make unsmart mistakes like me.

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