In the post that follows, I’ll share standings gain points (SGP) factors for the NFBC Main Event, NFBC Draft Championship, and NFBC Online Championship for each of the last five years (2012-2016). But I’ve got to lay some groundwork before we get there…
Raw vs. Relative
While the discussion is a bit lengthy, I think this article discussing “raw” and “relative” SGP contains one of the most significant realizations I’ve had in fantasy baseball.
The quick and dirty explanation of this realization is that it is not only the raw SGP factors (or denominators) that drive player value calculations. The relationship, or relative value, between the SGP factors is also meaningful. Not only that, but looking exclusively at raw factors can be misleading, as it is difficult to see these relationships.
To illustrate, here are two example sets of raw SGP factors for a league:
|2013 15-team NFBC Main Event||0.00161||13.751||5.533||15.115||6.228|
|2016 15-team NFBC Main Event||0.00150||15.366||6.561||16.838||6.375|
I refer to these as raw factors because they’re calculated using the standard process prescribed by SGP. A calculation is made for each scoring category and those numbers are then fed into the process that’s used to rank or assign dollar values to players.
Looking again at the table of raw data above, you might think, “Wow, what happened in the last three years that caused those significant changes in the SGP factors?”
You might even start spewing some narrative about the changing landscape of baseball, the rise in strikeouts, and the power surge MLB experienced last season.
But before you start that process, let’s take a look at those same sets of SGP factors, after they’ve been converted into relative form:
|2013 15-team NFBC Main Event||0.00011||0.90976||0.36609||1.00000||0.41202|
|2016 15-team NFBC Main Event||0.00009||0.91256||0.38963||1.00000||0.37862|
The numbers still fluctuate. And if you run the math, from 2013 to 2016 the categories changed about 10%, on average, in both the raw and relative calculations. But seeing the factors in relative form really gives me a lot more confidence in my calculations.
I was always wondering if I screwed up my calculations before making this realization. “Could RBI really have changed that much?”
To be clear, I did not develop this way of looking at the numbers. I made the realization after reading “Winning Fantasy Baseball” by Larry Schechter. Although I didn’t invent this approach, I continue to share it because I think a lot of folks are confused by the raw numbers and this confusion leads to decreased confidence in the SGP approach.
How to Calculate Relative SGP
I’d encourage you to read the lengthier discussion, but the relative calculation for a given category is just the raw number divided by the category with the largest raw factor. This is usually RBI for hitting categories and strikeouts for pitching.
13.751 / 15.115 = 0.90976.
Where 13.751 is the raw 2013 runs factor and 15.115 is the raw RBI factor.
Now for the NFBC Data
Using the approach outlined here, I downloaded the overall standings and individual category statistics from the NFBC’s public standings information. I did this for the Main Event, Online Championship, and Draft Championship for the five years from 2012 to 2016.
I then took the data and calculated the average stats required to finish in each place within the standings. Those average stats were then used to calculate the SGP denominators for each of the past five seasons for each of the three league types.
NFBC Draft Championship SGP Factors
Here are the Draft Championship hitting categories:
Here are the Draft Championship pitching categories:
NFBC Online Championship SGP Factors
Here are the Online Championship hitting categories:
Here are the Online Championship pitching categories:
NFBC Main Event SGP Factors
Here are the Main Event hitting categories:
Here are the Main Event pitching categories:
Averages of the Last Five Seasons
Here are the hitting categories:
|2012-2016 Draft Championship||Raw||0.00162||16.96584||6.92636||18.27598||6.75148|
|2012-2016 Online Championship||Raw||0.00194||19.38923||8.05178||20.41514||8.17420|
|2012-2016 Main Event||Raw||0.00156||14.84767||6.13897||15.74659||6.00580|
|2012-2016 Draft Championship||Relative||0.00009||0.92999||0.37845||1.00000||0.36974|
|2012-2016 Online Championship||Relative||0.00010||0.95088||0.39455||1.00000||0.40033|
|2012-2016 Main Event||Relative||0.00010||0.94382||0.3899||1.00000||0.38185|
Here are the pitching categories:
|2012-2016 Draft Championship||Raw||(0.06298)||(0.01161)||2.86769||30.99836||6.63583|
|2012-2016 Online Championship||Raw||(0.07652)||(0.01413)||3.05221||33.06689||7.04756|
|2012-2016 Main Event||Raw||(0.06152)||(0.01095)||2.39339||23.67533||5.35163|
|2012-2016 Draft Championship||Relative||(0.00203)||(0.00037)||0.09264||1.00000||0.21428|
|2012-2016 Online Championship||Relative||(0.00232)||(0.00043)||0.09257||1.00000||0.21358|
|2012-2016 Main Event||Relative||(0.00260)||(0.00046)||0.10124||1.00000||0.22631|
Besides sharing the summarized NFBC standings data, I really hope that by seeing and beginning to use relative SGP factors, you can feel more confident about your SGP calculations and avoid wondering about questions like…
- My SGP denominators differ significantly from the ones you have on your site, did I do something wrong?
- I’m in a new 13-team league with no history. Can I use SGP? Can I use the SGP factors for a similar 12-team league?
- I play in a highly competitive league? Does that mean my SGP factors should be different than my non-competitive league?
You can see from the numbers above that seemingly different SGP factors look a lot more similar when converted to the relative scale. You can also see that the factors from a 12-team league are not all that different from a 15-team league. And similarly, an ultra-high stakes league can be comparable to that of a lower-level buy-in.
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