Projection Aggregator

What is the Projection Aggregator?

The Projection Aggregator is an easy to use Excel spreadsheet that can combine (or average) up to three different projection sets to give you the best possible set of projections to use for the upcoming season. You can use just about any well known projection source you have at your disposal. Download your favorite projections, fill out the settings tab shown below (instructions included), and you’re done.

No complicated formulas. No VLOOKUPs. Just download projections, bring them in to the Aggregator, and fill out the settings below. That’s it! You’ll have better projections in minutes.

Even though only the hitters are shown, the Projection Aggregator works for pitchers too.
Even though only the hitters are shown, the Projection Aggregator works for pitchers too.

Keep reading to find out more or click the “Add to Cart” button below to check out safely using your PayPal account.

Buy the Projection Aggregator for $7.99
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Can Averaging Projections Really Increase their Accuracy?

If you found your way to this page then it’s pretty likely that you’ve heard this argument at some point in your fantasy baseball career,

“Never average multiple projections together. All that does is take away any advantage you have. It’ll eliminate all the sleepers and bust players from the list and you’ll end up losing to the other teams that go out on a limb and are aggressive. The only way to get an advantage is to choose one system you trust. Don’t downgrade it by averaging in something else.”

I’m paraphrasing, but we’ve probably all read something like that on a message board at some point in time.

I thought that argument had merit.

But the more I have looked into it I’ve realized that it’s pretty much an agreed upon fact by the forecasting community that your default behavior should be to combine multiple forecasts to get the most accurate result (that’s what baseball projections are). Go Google, “Should you combine multiple forecasts” and scan through some of the top results if you don’t believe me.

We don’t know what’s going to happen. Projections systems don’t know. But what we have are a lot of smart people who develop their projections in different manners. And that’s where the value lies. That’s the best time to combine different projections, when you have multiple intelligent and proven systems attacking the problem differently.

The only time it makes sense to rely upon one system is when you very clearly know that system is superior to all the others… And we don’t know that for baseball.

What Features Does This Spreadsheet Have?

I think its best feature is that I designed it to be easy to use and I include a short 12 page instruction guide to make sure everything is crystal clear (the guide has a lot of big pictures and big font, it’s not long at all). I’ve had quite a few readers of the site test the file out and they all thought it was easy to use. It’s been tested quite thoroughly!

If you’re looking for more specific features:

The Projection Aggregator can work with projections from any of these major systems.
The Projection Aggregator can work with projections from any of these major systems.

Easily Use Many of the Common Projection Sets

The Projection Aggregator is preloaded with the SFBB Player ID Map which will allow it to work with nearly all of the popular projection systems (I’m not aware of any popular system it won’t work with). It can easily work with projections from Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball HQ, Mastersball, CBS, and more. It does NOT come with these projections, but if you have access to premium projections from a major fantasy service provider, the Projection Aggregator can likely work with them.

What Projection Systems Does This Work With?


Here are some of the projection systems the Aggregator will work well with:

  • Steamer (free at Fangraphs)
  • Zips (free at Fangraphs)
  • PECOTA (premium at Baseball Prospectus)
  • Mastersball (premium at Mastersball)
  • Baseball HQ (premium at Baseball HQ)
  • Fantasy Pros (free at FantasyPros)>

However, this is not a comprehensive list because the Aggregator will work with any projection system that uses Player IDs (read more about player IDs here) from Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Baseball Prospectus, Davenport, MLB, ESPN, CBS, or Yahoo.

Several of the sites mentioned above (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo) do not provide downloadable projections that contain the player ID that is ideal for the Aggregator to work, but with a little bit of homework on your part you can get the Player ID’s necessary.

Equal or Custom Weighting

You can choose to include all projection sets in the average at equal weight. Or if you have a favorite system or have evidence that one has historically been more accurate than others, you can give that system more weight in the averaging.CUSTOM_WEIGHTING

Enter Your Own Playing Time for Any Player

A lot of projection systems don’t take current events and depth chart information into account when developing their projections. If there is any area of projecting baseball statistics that I think I can beat a computer at, it’s playing time. The Projection Aggregator allows you to override any individual player’s plate appearances (or innings pitched) and enter your own estimate. That playing time estimate that you enter is then multiplied by the averaged rates for the player. For example, if the aggregate projections say project a player for 50 runs and 300 plate appearances but you believe he’ll be a full-time 600 plate appearance player, the Projection Aggregator will update the players run estimate to 100 runs.

This is especially helpful for making last minute adjustments to player projections as your draft approaches. If a pitcher comes down with an elbow injury you can immediately drop his IP to zero. If a player has a hamstring injury late in the preseason and will miss six weeks, you can drop his PA projection to account for that.

Tulowitzki was  projected for 27 HR, 87 R, and 92 RBI over 580 PAs (yeah, right!).  If I adjust to  450 PAs the Aggregator adjust the stat line to 21 HR, 67 R, and 71 RBI.
Tulowitzki was projected for 27 HR, 87 R, and 92 RBI over 580 PAs (yeah, right!). If I adjust to 450 PAs the Aggregator adjust the stat line to 21 HR, 69 R, and 72 RBI.

Compare Multiple Hitters and Pitchers to Each Other

You can see up to four hitters side-by-side and see their stat line for each of the projection systems you’ve brought into the file.COMPARE_HITTERS

This is Great. What Do I Need for this to Work?

You need Microsoft Excel 2007 or greater for Windows. If you are using a Mac you must be using Excel 2011 (previous versions of Excel for Mac will likely not work).

Buy the Projection Aggregator Now!

The Projection Aggregator spreadsheet costs $7.99. A small price to pay for being able to quickly and easily improve the accuracy of your fantasy baseball projections.

You can also reuse the spreadsheet in future seasons using instructions included in the accompanying guide. It just takes a little maintenance to add in new players each season.

Click the “Add to Cart” button below to check out safely using your PayPal account.

Buy the Projection Aggregator for $7.99Add to CartView Cart

More Screenshots


Click to see the list of all tabs in the spreadsheet.
Click the image to see the list of all tabs in the spreadsheet.

The settings tab requires inputs in the yellow shaded cells and then it "reads" the projection tab you brought in to locate what column each stat category is in.  Then all the averages calculate from knowing where each stat is located.
The settings tab requires inputs in the yellow shaded cells and then it “reads” the projection tab you brought in to locate what column each stat category is in. Then all the averages calculate from knowing where each stat is located.
The Aggregate Hitter Projection tab contains the averaged stats for each player and is where you can override plate appearances for any hitter.
The Aggregate Hitter Projection tab contains the averaged stats for each player and is where you can override plate appearances for any hitter.
The Aggregate Pitcher Projections tab contains the averaged projections for each pitcher and is where you can override your IP estimate.
The Aggregate Pitcher Projections tab contains the averaged projections for each pitcher and is where you can override your IP estimate.
The individual hitter comparisons tab allows you to see all three (or two in this case) projection sets side by side for up to four players along with the aggregate projection.
The individual hitter comparisons tab allows you to see all three (or two in this case) projection sets side by side for up to four players along with the aggregate projection.
The individual pitcher comparisons tab allows you to see all three (or two in this case) projection sets side by side for up to four players along with the aggregate projection.
The individual pitcher comparisons tab allows you to see all three (or two in this case) projection sets side by side for up to four players along with the aggregate projection.

Click the “Add to Cart” button below to check out safely using your PayPal account.

Buy the Projection Aggregator for $7.99Add to CartView Cart

9 Responses

  1. hankp101
    hankp101 at | | Reply

    Any chance you could add Quality Starts as a category to projection aggregator? Great tool!

  2. hankp101
    hankp101 at | | Reply

    What does the aggregator do with players who do have a projection from a system, but no projection from the system being used for PA/IP? Thanks!

  3. evo34
    evo34 at | | Reply

    Ideally, the sheet would allow you assign weights for playing time sources, and different weights for projected stat sources. I.e., calc. the [stat] per PA/IP for each source and use them (with user-defined weights) to come up with a [stat] per PA/IP rate projection for each player. Then, calc. the projected playing time (PA/IP) for each player (using a separate set of user-defined weights of sources). Multiply the rate stat projection with the playing time projection to get the final full-season projection.

    Can your sheet do this?

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at | | Reply

      Hi Evo,

      It can do all of that and possibly even a little more that you might find helpful! Each projection is first converted into a per PA or per IP calculation. You can assign a weight to each projection system for converting these per PA/IP into an average. You can then choose to use the playing time from each projection system with the same user defined weighted average OR to only use the playing time estimate from a selected system.

      Lastly, you have the ability to override the playing time (IP or PA) estimate to what you think it will be. This will, in effect, take the calculated weighted average and apply your playing time estimate to that.

      Hope that helps.

      Tanner

  4. Steve
    Steve at | | Reply

    Hi Tanner,

    This looks like a really nice tool. I have something similar setup, but still requires too much manual manipulation on my part. I’m considering purchasing this, but I’d like to know if it’s editable – meaning do you have it all password protected or will I be able to make any edits that I see fit?

    1. Tanner Bell
      Tanner Bell at | | Reply

      Hi Steve, nothing is password protected. You can change or edit it as you see fit.

      1. Steve
        Steve at | | Reply

        Thanks Tanner

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