11 Responses

  1. Brian
    Brian at | | Reply

    Good point. I think it’s as important, if not more, to look at a guy’s spot in the order than to look at how many runs his team will score. The same guy on a crappy team could easily have as many or more R/RBI as he would on a great team. Because on a great team, he might bat 7th., whereas on the crappy team he could bat 2nd or 3rd. It really depend son the situation.

    For example, this year the Braves are terrible. Just atrocious. But if Jose Peraza gets called up in May and bats leadoff for the rest of the year (which seems like a decent possibility), he could be a surprising source of runs for a guy that a) can’t really hit and b) is on the worst offensive team in the majors. He will also get a ton of chances to steal. Whereas if he was on the Nationals, he likely bats 8th. He would get far fewer at-bats, he won’t have sluggers to knock him in if he gets on base, the pitcher bats after him which not only means he’s unlikely to get knocked in, but also that they won’t let him steal because there’s little upside and a lot of downside. So in this case it’s much better for him to be on a crappy team than a great team.

    Even last year with Stanton, I saw a lot of people argue that he won’t get any RBI because the Marlins are terrible. I ended up with him in pretty much all my leagues. He was a great source of not only RBI, but Runs too. He batted 3rd all year which got him a lot of plate appearances, and even on a crappy team like Miami there are one or two decent enough hitters to put 1 and 2 in the order.

  2. If this is my progress so far, I must be doing something right? - OOTP Developments Forums

    […] situations they result from is important. i saw a much better graph than my previous post here: The Effect of Batting Order on R and RBI Production | Smart Fantasy Baseball just becareful with stats. understand how the data is gathered. is a human's subjectivity involved […]

  3. DMM
    DMM at | | Reply

    Interesting stuff. In your research, I am wondering if you happened to look at Team Runs/Plate Apperances on a per game basis? That is, if a team scores Y runs in a game, what would you predict their Team PAs to be. Something like Y = Ax + B.

    1. Tanner
      Tanner at | | Reply

      Hi, DMM. Thanks for commenting. I have not done that, but I love the idea. I’ll work on breaking down the data some more so we can dive into that next level. Stay tuned. I’ll try to get a piece together on what I find.

  4. Lineup Selection; Traditional or Sabermetric? - OOTP Developments Forums

    […] it's pretty random who starts an inning leading off after that. hey i found the link that helps: The Effect of Batting Order on R and RBI Production | Smart Fantasy Baseball that's not the best info for what i am talking about in regard to RBI and batting order. this info […]

  5. warisflawed1
    warisflawed1 at | | Reply

    1. The Best hitter is almost always in the Three slot. 2. Man on Base W/2 out opportunities are never discussed ? Take a batters SLG % in those opportunities with the base runners moving either on the pitch or in 2 strike counts, before the pitch. 2 out opportunities with a RISP or Man on Base are the toughest hitting situations but they can lead to scoring runs in bunches !

  6. Warisflawed1
    Warisflawed1 at | | Reply

    As far as RE24, any metric system that negates the use of situations to equate value should be minimized as legitimate sources. Take for instance “RE24” in the 3rd game of the season in 2012. Detroit trails Boston 7-10 in the bottom of 9th 2 on with no outs. Cabrera hits a tying 3 run HR. Detroit trails again by 10-12 in extra innings and Cabrera reaches base and scores in helping Detroit win 13-12. Cabrera goes 3 for 5 with 3 runs scored and 5 RBI’s but because he hit into a double play with a single runner on base, MIGGY is given a 2.15 for his performance ? I have seen performances that are awarded larger values when their team is being blown, but because the player didn’t hit into a pre-valued double play, that player will not have their RE24 performance be minimized. A 2.15 for that situational performance is a INJUSTICE !

  7. Jo Linn
    Jo Linn at | | Reply

    What about RBI opportunities? Straight RBI production figures are skewed by the quality of a hitter that is generally in a given lineup position. Teams usually put their best hitters at 3 and 4 so it seems like RBI opportunities per plate appearance and total RBI opportunities per season would be more telling. TY

    1. Tanner
      Tanner at | | Reply

      Hi Jo,

      Thanks for the suggestion. I do agree this would be interesting to see. In addition to just “good hitters” I bet there are some that can execute more efficiently to knock in runs.

      My issue is that I am not familiar with where to download or view RBI opportunity data so that it can be incorporated.

      If you know of some, please let me know.

      Thanks, Tanner

  8. Milwaukee - Baseball Prospectus
    Milwaukee - Baseball Prospectus at |

    […] move up in the order is worth approximately one-tenth of an additional plate appearance per game as this graph of data from 2014 […]

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